The figure below is from the AAII, showing the S&P 500 price performance since 1987 and the AAII bullish percent over the same time. I've highlighted the last four times that the bullish percent fell below 20%. You can see that the last times this happened it was either a major market bottom (2009) or the middle of a bull market (1993 and 2005).
|Stage Analysis||S&P 500 above MA(30)||Bullish|
|Advance-Decline||NYAD above MA(30), new high recently||Bullish|
|Market Momentum||NYAD MA(200) made in a range, but well above zero||Bullish|
|Highs vs Lows||NYHL positive and above 100 for past 3 months||Bullish|
|World Markets||VEU is above MA(30).||Bullish|
|Market Leader||AAPL is below MA(30) and has been major underperformer.||Bearish|
|Price-to-Dividend||S&P500 dividend yield below 1930-2011 average.||Bearish/ Neutral|
|Contrary Opinion||AAII sentiment survey is extreme - low bullish percent.||Bullish|
Overall, the indicator score continues to be above zero as it has been since October 2012.
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